In the world of boxing and MMA betting, there are many different mistakes and misconceptions. Some prefer to bet solely on favourites, some prefer a catch-up strategy and playing on the underdogs, but almost every beginner has made mistakes at the start of their journey in betting, making not only “bumps”, but also leaving holes in the budget. We will tell you about the most popular mistakes made by newcomers to the world of fighting sports betting.
The UFC and other high profile fringe organisations often have around ten fights in one night. It is only natural for a new bettor who knows boxing and MMA pretty well to be confused by the number of possible outcomes. In this regard, bettors often put together a variety of “pairings”.
But martial arts is not a team sport. A single kick can make all the difference, which can bring an entire ironclad parlay down in front of the bookmaker. Because of this, we advise against putting 5 or more events together in one handicap. It’s much better to play with doubles and trebles and worry about a few fights in the card, rather than frantically replaying every match of the evening.
Betting on knockouts
A misconception, which concerns exclusively MMA. There is a common opinion that in mixed martial arts it is the fighters with great knockout power who “rule”, and knockouts are usually chosen more often than wrestlers. But at different times and in different periods of time, grapplers have won the title. Georges St-Pierre, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Jon Jones are not far off as examples. Each of the three greatest fighters is a fighter by his base.
Lakipunch, of course, is not to be denied, but it is much more likely that the wrestler will be able to impose his own style of fighting on his opponent-puncher, constantly conducting touchdowns and deliberately slowing down the fight, thus gaining the points he needs. After all, wrestling is known to be much harder to train than striking.
Besides, if two knockouts meet in a bout, the fight is not necessarily over before the end. Among the clearest examples is the showdown between Dustin Porter and Dan Hooker, where both knocked out the opposition several times during their careers, but their head-to-head fight ended after five rounds by decision of the judges.
Wrestlers on the canvas – betting on TB rounds
Another misconception from the mixed martial arts world. Indeed, if two grapplers clash in a fight, the bout is more likely to be over in the first round, but there is more room for the skilled grappler in a prone position than a knockout in a standing position.
As a result the fighters fight at equal, and often violent, level grounds. They can either fight on the ground without stepping on their own territory or they can fight on the ground and settle the fight by one mistake.
As an example let’s take two fights with Kevin Lee, who is a rated grappler with excellent wrestling fundamentals. In his first fight against Gregor Gillespie, considered the prototype of Khabib Nurmagomedov, he won via a devastating knockout. In another fight, Lee lost to wrestler Charles Oliveira due to a single miscalculation, which was enough for the MJV master to win.
Continuation of the winning streak
If you consider this aspect, you can come across a huge number of examples where a fighter with zero in the loss column, while fighting under the auspices of a top promotion, loses to a more experienced or more skilled fighter.
It is important to pay attention to the athlete’s opposition before the fight. If he has had fighters with negative records, novice athletes and athletes with a lot of losses come up against him, then it is not unreasonable that he might lose to an athlete who has lost, but has lost to much stronger opposition.
For an example, let’s go to the UFC, where the fight between Alain Amedowski and Krzysztof Zotko took place at UFC Fight Night 149. On the second, because of his losing streak, was given the odds for 3, while Amedovski with zero defeats was the clear favorite. But the more skilled Zotko simply destroyed his opponent, without giving him a chance to win.
Underestimating the underdog
Betting on the favourite is a common mistake in both boxing and MMA betting. It is important to understand that a clear analysis of what is going on is necessary before any fight. You have to sort out several aspects that a particular fighter can win and choose your favourite for the fight, then compare your opinion with the bookmaker’s opinion.
The favourite, as thousands of cases have shown, does not always win. Sometimes you can catch a really big odds and not worry much about the outcome of the fight, because it will go your way.
An example is the fight between Eddie Alvarez and Timofey Nastyukhin. Eddie was the clear favorite before the fight, while on Nastyukhin was offered odds in the region of five. But the former UFC champion did not prepare for the fight at all, which was evident on his social media. Nastyukhin, on the other hand, was going into the bout as the last challenge of his career, defeating an experienced opponent.
Bets backed by recent fights
How the fighter has performed in his last fights is really important. Just don’t forget that boxing is not cyclical. Athletes can change weight classes, training camps, sparring partners and move to another training centre, which will drastically change his approach to fighting. Therefore we recommend you to pay attention to all the information about the bout you want to bet on.
Every detail is important – a change of seconds, a change of trainer, moving to another weight class. All this can both harm the athlete and help him, which makes his results in extreme fights absolutely unprofitable.
An older fighter will lose to a more promising one
Almost everyone of us watched the movie Rocky as a child, where Sylvester Stallone’s character overcame various challenges time after time in order to achieve success. The same thing happens in MMA as well as in boxing. Athletes do the same thing over and over again, and the more time you train the better your chances of winning the ultimate fight.
Also, young fighters often suffer from underestimating their opponent, which invariably leads to a collapse and unexpected consequences of the fight.
We strongly recommend that you consult all available resources before choosing a bet on an event. Check out athletes’ last fights, read about their training, follow their social networks, which often contain valuable information about their training.
And based on that make conclusions about the event. That is why martial arts are great, because if you treat boxing and MMA well, you can reach the highest level and beat any opponent. And the bettor, in turn, can avoid making a fatal mistake and not only get his own, but also earn some money.